Climate change

Climate change will affect not just our woods and forests but all natural environments, and is the biggest threat that the whole human race has yet to face. Download our easy to digest explanation of climate change.

Provisional figures for 2005 compiled by the Met Office's Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia (UEA) show that the northern hemisphere experienced its warmest ever year. To the end of November mean-sea temperature and land temperature was currently 0.65 °C above the long-term average.

Globally the year to date is the second warmest in a record dating back to 1861. This continues the recent trend of increasing global temperature, and the ten warmest years have all occurred in the last 11 years, with only 1996 not making the top ten.

Satellite observations of Arctic sea ice in September revealed that the ice has dropped to its lowest recorded summer extent since these began in the 1970s. However, there has been little change around Antarctica during the year, continuing the trend of the last 20 years.

In the UK, 2005 was yet another warm year, particularly October which was the second warmest on record. The current anomaly of the Central England Temperature (CET) is 1.07 °C above normal and within the top 10 warmest years in the 347-year record (currently fifth).

2004 was the fourth warmest year globally - and currently the eighth warmest for England. View the table of average regional temperatures, rainfall and sunshine hours for 2004 from the Met Office.

In August 2004 the European Commission described climate change as ‘one of the greatest environmental and economic threats facing the planet’ - details. In October, a coalition of environment and aid agencies called for urgent action to avert the possibility that climate change could exacerbate human suffering in the world’s poorest nations to perhaps an unprecedented level. They asked for plans for human development that are both climate-proof and climate-friendly.
In November 2004 the Arctic Council announced that their region is undergoing rapid and possibly irreversible change, with perhaps all ocean ice disappearing in summers by 2060-2100 - details

For information on a range of reports including the impact of climate change on London, visit the UKCIP website and register for access to a range of reports. The damage already done to the climate by man's greenhouse gas emissions will affect us for the next 1,000 years. This is shown clearly in a report by scientists at the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The UK, France and Germany issued a joint statement on climate change in October 2003, emphasising the link between recent extreme weather events and climate change (see below). The Met Office reports that north America is showing signs of man-made global warming.

The heat is on

At a meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) in January 2001, more than 150 scientists and government representatives accepted unanimously that climate change in the 20th century can be attributed to human activity. The UKPN’s Dr Tim Sparks is one of the lead authors for the report to be published by the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Working Group II, looking at the impact of climate change, adaptation and vulnerability.

The evidence is damning and predictions for the future horrifying. Average temperatures world-wide have increased in the last century by 0.6°C, but are now predicted to rise by up to 5.8°C by 2100, almost twice IPCC's previous estimates.

2001-2003

Figures released by the Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation showed that 2001 was the second warmest year since records began in 1859. In that 142-year period, nine of the 10 warmest years occurred in the 1990s, including 1999 and 2000, and only 1998 was warmer than 2001. In December 2001, the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research correctly predicted that the global surface temperature for 2002 would be the second highest on record. The predicted anomaly, 0.47 °C, was very close to the 0.49 °C observed.

In April 2002 the UK Climate Impacts Programme launched new Climate Change Scenarios. UK scientists say the first three months of 2002 were globally the warmest January, February and March since records began. The average temperature for England and Wales was 5.7C (42F) 1.8C higher than usual in January. They are also the second-warmest consecutive three months ever recorded. Worldwide temperatures were 0.71 Celsius above the 1961-1990 average. Dr Geoff Jenkins, of the UK Government's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said: "These three months were the warmest January, February and March since records began in 1860. Proxy records, for instance from tree rings, suggest they are in fact the warmest for a thousand years. Previous records have chiefly been broken during an El Nino, but this has happened in a slightly cool period." The only consecutive three months warmer than the last three were February, March and April 1998, during a marked El Nino.

2003 was the fifth warmest in much of Britain since the start of records in 1659, and the fourth warmest summer period on record. The years 1949, 1990, 1999 and 2002 were warmer with the Central England Temperature between 1.1 and 1.2 °C above average. Records were broken at Brogdale, near Faversham in Kent, when temperatures reached 38.5 °C on 10 August.

Met Office climate scientist David Parker, said: "2003 has been another very warm year in Central England and six out of the seven warmest years since 1659 have occurred since 1990. Average global temperatures have risen by around 0.7 °C over the past 100 years and our research shows that the warming over the past 50 years is mainly due to human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels."

A new report - Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom, prepared by the Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, includes the following predictions by the 2080s:

• annual average temperatures across the UK may rise by between 2C (low) ans 3.5 C (high)
• warmer summers will become more frequent and very cold winters increasingly rare.
• winters will become wetter, summers perhaps drier, and under the high emissions scenario summer soil moisture across much of England could be 40% less, with serious implications for farming.
• snowfall across the UK will decrease: average reductions over Scotland could range from 60% to 90% (high)
• relative sea level will go on rising around the UK: it could rise by between 26 and 86cm (10 to 34 inches) in the southeast England.
• in some places the probability of extremes of sea level (for instance, during a storm surge) in any given could rise from about 2% to 90% (high)
• the gulf Stream may weaken, but probably not enough to cool the UK during this century.

A report has been launched highlighting the climate change impacts on London. The research was commissioned by the London Climate Change Partnership. For more information visit the UKCIP website and register for access to a range of reports. The damage already done to the climate by man's greenhouse gas emissions will affect us for the next 1,000 years. This is shown clearly in a new report, by scientists at the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The UK, France and Germany issued a joint statement on climate change in October 2003, emphasising the link between recent extreme weather events and climate change. The Met Office reports that north America is showing signs of man-made global warming. In July 2005 the G8 met at Gleneagles with climate change high on the agenda. What did they achieve? Read the resulting statement

Carbon catastrophe

The primary cause of climate change is the build up of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Levels of carbon dioxide had been relatively stable for thousands of years but have increased by 31 per cent since 1750. Burning fossil fuels has contributed 75 per cent of this increase, while deforestation accounted for most of the remainder.

In 1997 at Kyoto, participating countries set targets to stabilise carbon dioxide at twice the pre-industrial levels, and with Russia’s support the treaty may finally, soon be ratified. However, America, the biggest consumer of fossil fuels, is doing little to change its profligate lifestyle.

Even if the present emissions of carbon dioxide stopped today, it would be centuries before the former composition of the atmosphere were re-established. The oceans and living things absorb this gas very slowly, and loss of forest cover world wide will hamper the healing process. View brochures from the Hadley Centre explaining the latest scientific thinking.

Wind and waves as well

Climate change has other manifestations as well as increasing temperatures. The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre has predicted more rain in the northern latitudes, but greater drought in arid and semi-arid regions. Increased wind speeds will result in storms and tidal waves which, added to sea level rise, will threaten many low-lying coastal areas.

Other projections suggest that the Gulf Stream could shut down irreversibly sometime after 2100 resulting in Britain facing a similar climate to Alaska. The view of the UK Climate Impacts Programme continues to be as set out in the UKCIP02 climate scenarios. That is, that the current scientific consensus is that global warming may result in a slight weakening of the Gulf Stream but is unlikely to shut it down completely this century, so north-west Europe will continue to get warmer. ' For the latest information on the Gulf Stream read this report from the UKCIP

Why climate change matters

The issue of climate change is vitally important to the Woodland Trust because we see it as the single greatest threat to what little remains of our ancient-woodland heritage. Many of the rare and threatened species that are associated with ancient woodland – by far the richest habitat in the UK – are highly immobile. This means that even at the best of times it is hard for them to move from one wood to another in a highly fragmented and inhospitable landscape. Add to that the rapidity at which climate change is predicted and the requirement of wildlife to move up to 150 kilometres north for every 1° rise in temperature, and the future does not look good for some of our rarest species.

Tackling climate change

We must all take action to minimise any adverse impact we are having on the Earth. The Woodland Trust has revised its day-to-day operations to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. Simple measures such as using public transport and buying electricity from renewable sources can make a real difference. The 24,000-plus recorders within the UK Phenology Network are certainly doing their bit by helping in the study of climate change and what can be done about it.

For other ideas to help prevent climate change visit our 'do your bit...' section or visit  www.energysavingtrust.org.uk or www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/climate/big_ask

For information on grants to help to spread the word about climate change www.climatechallenge.gov.uk